A risk assessment of equine piroplasmosis entry, exposure and consequences in the UK

Background: Equine piroplasmosis (EP) is currently not endemic in the UK, despite a lack of formal surveillance and the presence of carrier horses in the equine population. Pathogen establishment would have significant welfare and economic impacts on the national equine industry, but the disease is often overlooked by UK practitioners. Objectives: To assess the risk of disease entry, exposure and consequences to the UK equine population. Study design: Qualitative risk assessment. Methods: A qualitative risk assessment was constructed utilising the current World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) published framework for importation risk assessment, assessing the key areas of disease entry, exposure and consequences to the UK equine population. Results: The overall risk of EP entry to the UK via importation of infected equidae with acute disease is very low but considered medium with subclinical carrier animals. Entry via importation of ticks or the importation of blood is considered very low. The risk of EP exposure to susceptible equidae in the UK is considered low by the infection routes of tick-bites, contaminated needles and contaminated blood, but very high via transplacental transfer. However, the consequences of EP endemic establishment are considered of high significance to the UK equine industry. Main limitations: A lack of available numerical data for events and variables in disease import risk meant a qualitative assessment was the most practical method for this scenario. Conclusions: This risk assessment highlights that EP positive animals are able to enter and are currently present in the UK, and that conditions do exist that could allow forward transmission of the disease. It has highlighted a gap in existing policy where the UK falls behind OIE guidelines and has suggested steps to correct this discrepancy and improve national biosecurity

Summary of current knowledge of the size and spatial distribution of the horse population within Great Britain

<b>Background</b> Robust demographic information is important to understanding the risk of introduction and spread of exotic diseases as well as the development of effective disease control strategies, but is often based on datasets collected for other purposes. Thus, it is important to validate, or at least cross-reference these datasets to other sources to assess whether they are being used appropriately. The aim of this study was to use horse location data collected from different contributing industry sectors ("Stakeholder horse data") to calibrate the spatial distribution of horses as indicated by owner locations registered in the National Equine Database (the NED).<p></p> <b>Results</b> A conservative estimate for the accurately geo-located NED horse population within GB is approximately 840,000 horses. This is likely to be an underestimate because of the exclusion of horses due to age or location criteria. In both datasets, horse density was higher in England and Wales than in Scotland. The high density of horses located in urban areas as indicated in the NED is consistent with previous reports indicating that owner location cannot always be viewed as a direct substitute for horse location. Otherwise, at a regional resolution, there are few differences between the datasets. There are inevitable biases in the stakeholder data, and leisure horses that are unaffiliated to major stakeholders are not included in these data. Despite this, the similarity in distributions of these datasets is re-assuring, suggesting that there are few regional biases in the NED.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> Our analyses suggest that stakeholder data could be used to monitor possible changes in horse demographics. Given such changes in horse demographics and the advantages of stakeholder data (which include annual updates and accurate horse location), it may be appropriate to use these data for future disease modelling in conjunction with, if not in place of the NED

Extending the first-order post-Newtonian scheme in multiple systems to the second-order contributions to light propagation

In this paper, we extend the first-order post-Newtonian scheme in multiple systems presented by Damour-Soffel-Xu to the second-order contribution to light propagation without changing the virtueof the scheme on the linear partial differential equations of the potential and vector potential. The spatial components of the metric are extended to second order level both in a global coordinates ($q_{ij}/ c^4$) and a local coordinates ($Q_{ab}/ c^4$). The equations of $q_{ij}$ (or $Q_{ab}$) are obtained from the field equations.The relationship between $q_{ij}$ and $Q_{ab}$ are presented in this paper also. In special case of the solar system (isotropic condition is applied ($q_{ij} = \delta_{ij} q$)), we obtain the solution of $q$. Finally, a further extension of the second-order contributions in the parametrized post-Newtonian formalism is discussed.Comment: Latex2e; 6 pages PS fil

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Food Security

We present scientific perspectives on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and global food security. International organizations and current evidence based on other respiratory viruses suggests COVID-19 is not a food safety issue, i.e., there is no evidence associating food or food packaging with the transmission of the virus causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), yet an abundance of precaution for this exposure route seems appropriate. The pandemic, however, has had a dramatic impact on the food system, with direct and indirect consequences on lives and livelihoods of people, plants, and animals. Given the complexity of the system at risk, it is likely that some of these consequences are still to emerge over time. To date, the direct and indirect consequences of the pandemic have been substantial including restrictions on agricultural workers, planting, current and future harvests; shifts in agricultural livelihoods and food availability; food safety; plant and animal health and animal welfare; human nutrition and health; along with changes in public policies. All aspects are crucial to food security that would require “One Health” approaches as the concept may be able to manage risks in a cost-effective way with cross-sectoral, coordinated investments in human, environmental, and animal health. Like climate change, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be most acutely felt by the poorest and most vulnerable countries and communities. Ultimately, to prepare for future outbreaks or threats to food systems, we must take into account the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations and a “Planetary Health” perspective

An online survey of horse-owners in Great Britain

Background: Contingency planning for potential equine infectious disease outbreaks relies on accurate information on horse location and movements to estimate the risk of dissemination of disease(s). An online questionnaire was used to obtain unique information linking owner and horse location to characteristics of horse movements within and outwith Great Britain (GB).<p></p> Results: This online survey yielded a strong response, providing more than four times the target number of respondents (1000 target respondents) living in all parts of GB. Key demographic findings of this study indicated that horses which were kept on livery yards and riding schools were likely to be found in urban environments, some distance away from the owner’s home and vaccinated against influenza and herpes virus. Survey respondents were likely to travel greater than 10 miles to attend activities such as eventing or endurance but were also likely to travel and return home within a single day (58.6%, 2063/3522). This may affect the geographical extent and speed of disease spread, if large numbers of people from disparate parts of the country are attending the same event and the disease agent is highly infectious or virulent. The greatest risk for disease introduction and spread may be represented by a small proportion of people who import or travel internationally with their horses. These respondents were likely to have foreign horse passports, which were not necessarily recorded in the National Equine Database (NED), making the location of these horses untraceable.<p></p> Conclusions: These results illustrate the difficulties which exist with national GB horse traceability despite the existence of the NED and the horse passport system. This study also demonstrates that an online approach could be adopted to obtain important demographic data on GB horse owners on a more routine and frequent basis to inform decisions or policy pertaining to equine disease control. This represents a reasonable alternative to collection of GB horse location and movement data given that the NED no longer exists and there is no immediate plan to replace it.<p></p&gt

Scenario planning: the future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland’s Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government

Hα Variability in PTFO8-8695 and the Possible Direct Detection of Emission from a 2 Million Year Old Evaporating Hot Jupiter

We use high time cadence, high spectral resolution optical observations to detect excess Hα emission from the 2–3 Myr old weak-lined T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695. This excess emission appears to move in velocity as expected if it were produced by the suspected planetary companion to this young star. The excess emission is not always present, but when it is, the predicted velocity motion is often observed. We have considered the possibility that the observed excess emission is produced by stellar activity (flares), accretion from a disk, or a planetary companion; we find the planetary companion to be the most likely explanation. If this is the case, the strength of the Hα line indicates that the emission comes from an extended volume around the planet, likely fed by mass loss from the planet which is expected to be overflowing its Roche lobe

Hα Variability in PTFO 8-8695 and the possible direct detection of emission from a 2 million year old evaporating hot Jupiter

We use high time cadence, high spectral resolution optical observations to detect excess Hα emission from the 2-3 Myr old weak-lined T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695. This excess emission appears to move in velocity as expected if it were produced by the suspected planetary companion to this young star. The excess emission is not always present, but when it is, the predicted velocity motion is often observed. We have considered the possibility that the observed excess emission is produced by stellar activity (flares), accretion from a disk, or a planetary companion; we find the planetary companion to be the most likely explanation. If this is the case, the strength of the Hα line indicates that the emission comes from an extended volume around the planet, likely fed by mass loss from the planet which is expected to be overflowing its Roche lobe

FAIR Data Pipeline: provenance-driven data management for traceable scientific workflows

Modern epidemiological analyses to understand and combat the spread of disease depend critically on access to, and use of, data. Rapidly evolving data, such as data streams changing during a disease outbreak, are particularly challenging. Data management is further complicated by data being imprecisely identified when used. Public trust in policy decisions resulting from such analyses is easily damaged and is often low, with cynicism arising where claims of "following the science" are made without accompanying evidence. Tracing the provenance of such decisions back through open software to primary data would clarify this evidence, enhancing the transparency of the decision-making process. Here, we demonstrate a Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR) data pipeline developed during the COVID-19 pandemic that allows easy annotation of data as they are consumed by analyses, while tracing the provenance of scientific outputs back through the analytical source code to data sources. Such a tool provides a mechanism for the public, and fellow scientists, to better assess the trust that should be placed in scientific evidence, while allowing scientists to support policy-makers in openly justifying their decisions. We believe that tools such as this should be promoted for use across all areas of policy-facing research

Scenario planning as communicative action: lessons from participatory exercises conducted for the Scottish livestock industry

AbstractBased on Habermas' Theory of Communicative Action, this paper critiques the transparency and legitimacy of participatory scenario planning, considering a case study of scenario development for the livestock industry within Scotland. The paper considers the extent to which the case study approximates the conditions for ‘ideal speech situations’ and how these conditions could be applied more widely in participatory scenario planning. The authors explore the rationale for participatory scenario planning within the science–policy interface with critical reference to the corporate context in which scenario planning has evolved. The aim is to optimise the potential for its use in the context of socio-technical and environmental governance. Researcher co-reflections on the case study are mapped within a matrix of indices representing conditions for ideal speech situations. Further analytical categories highlight the extent to which ideal speech was approximated. Although many of the constraints on achieving ideal speech situations reflect intransigent, practical logistics of organising participatory exercises, our novel approach enables the systematic identification of some important issues and provides a conceptual framework for understanding how they interrelate that may prove useful to practitioners and theorists alike